Preface

Narendra Modi is a brand today. For his opponents, he is a punching bag, responsible for every wrong in the world. But, whatever view one may have, Modi can not be ignored. Not just in India but no part of the world can ignore Modi, any time soon. Brand is what people call behind the back of a person. China is an adversary of India. But even Chinese media is not hesitant to call Modi, a super star.iSee https://www.theyouth.in/2019/02/28/chinese-media-says-indian-prime-minister-is-a-rockstar-video-goes-viral-in-pakistan/

Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) fought the elections of 2014 as a coalition of parties called National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and won the election with more than 17 Cr. votes besides the votes polled by the other constituents of National Democratic Alliance (NDA), though they had also declared their support for Modi before elections. Thus with support of 17 Crore plus votes, Modi is most popular democratic leader in the World. BJP won clear majority in Lok Sabha for the first time in 30 years. All Governments after 1984 were coalition governments dependant upon support of others to form the Government. So how did Modi achieve this historic win? Was it a fluke ? Or it was a happening as some will see it?

Before the elections, the print media was busy predicting how it was impossible for Modi to succeed. Some predicted hung assembly, like always. Some went overboard to predict Congress Party's win due to Modi. Read this headline:

"Modi will be the single most significant cause of the Congress's victory in 2014, despite 2G, coalgate, Commonwealth Games and all the other scams he has forgotten, says A Ganesh Nadar."iiSee https://www.rediff.com/news/column/why-narendra-modi-is-congress-s-biggest-asset/20130610.htm

After the election results were out, the above opinion writer Nadar got bashed by commentators for his obviously baseless prediction. Newspapers and opinion makers have been discredited for irresponsible views propagated by them which at best borders on propaganda for a political party.

Position remained same later in 2016 in USA, where media projected Hillary Clinton as the winner, till last moment. The media over there too has no explanation except that they were not informing people about news but were setting a narrative.

This necessitated me to write this book. A book based on ground reality of facts. An explanation of my Deja Vu moments. It will cover not only the elections but also other political aspects of democracy in India, which is so unique that most people have no idea about it.

The winning of Modi was so startling that even Rahul Gandhi, leader of Congress Party had difficulty accepting that the Modi had become Prime Minister of India. He continued to refer him as Leader of Opposition in rallies in MaharashtraiiiSee https://www.dailymail.co.uk/indiahome/indianews/article-2785645/Don-t-mean-PM-Rahul-refers-Modi-leader-Opposition-Maha-election-rally.html many months after the election results were declared in 2014.

The journalists who received Padma Awards from Congress Governments, are already telling the factors as to why Modi should or must lose in 2019 elections.ivSee https://www.dailyo.in/politics/narendra-modi-2019-general-elections-rahul-gandhi-bjp-tdp-mahagathbandhan/story/1/29011.html But they either know nothing which means they are dumb or they are engaged in false propoganda. The method of winning election has a secret which is apparent but missed by all, deliberately.

PM Modi has served in office for nearly five years. The next General Election of India is due in April 2019 and he has to face the public again. The biggest question today is "Will PM Modi win in 2019?"

Some say he will, others disagree. So how to ascertain the answer? What are the factors to be taken into account?

These questions have become even more elusive after the recent defeat of BJP in State elections in Rajasthan, M.P. and Chhatisgarh. Especially the small margin of defeat in former two. In M.P. the result is a hung assembly where new Government of Congress is hanging by outside support of smaller party like BSP and independent candidates etc.

Politics is not just numbers and democracy is not just about issues and performance. Had it been so, elections would have been far more predictable than seasons. Not that seasons are all that predictable in this era of climate change, but at least we know what to expect.

As stated earlier there are secrets hidden in plain sight. Visible to everybody but known to few. I have shared many such secrets in different chapters, with references so as it may not called as wild allegations or haunch. In the last chapter I shall spill the ultimate secret of elections in India.

If the answer to the question " Will Modi win in 2019?" is yes or no, it is boring. Why bother to know in advance? But if we know where and what (secret) factors to look at, which will make winning or losing possible then it is interesting. Then it is like watching a game. This is what is intended to be addressed in this book. But it has to be in the perspective of the history. Therefore it is a journey through memory lane about the political events of the recent past and distant past.

When in 1984, Rajiv Gandhi with 115,478,267 votes (out of 235,184,209 votes polled) for his party, he was the previous most popular leader and in that year of 1984 the BJP had won just 2 seats. However the BJP emerged as a serious contender for power in India in 1989, when it supported V.P. Singh, (who later became the Prime Minister) to ascend to power. So what is so special with BJP or is it mere luck that today it is in power?

Dr. Manmohan Singh,former Prime Minister of India is statedvSee ISBN 978-0670086740, the Accidental Prime Minister by Sanjay Baru. to have said that "the world's political and economic system is a power play and those who have greater power use it to their advantage."

With respect, the domestic politics is not much different. It is also the struggle of different factions of society to remain in power or at least near to centre of power. The small difference is the methods they employ to gain power. The methods too are not much different from each other. However the greater difference lies in the objects which are achieved by these groups, after gaining power.

The elections and politics in largest democracy of 1.3 billion people in the world is a conundrum which most Indians do not understand what to say of rest of the world. Let's attempt to understand the enigma of democracy in India.

Introduction

History is boring. Why? Because it has names as dynasties and numbers as years. Most students of history have to cram it. But the historians or archeologists or anthropologists know their subject like the back of their hand. Do they cram it?

Actually secret of their memory is that they contextualise it. In other words they remember it in context. For examples, the wars which took place or the kings who built great monuments and so on or the Kings who were embarrassingly dimwit etc.

History is important because we are in it. At any given moment we are a part of history. In India were we have Aadhar linked bank accounts and we may soon pay with a finger print. It is a moment in history. Untill now such transfer of money was visualised only in science fiction. The mobile phones we use are far more advanced than ever imagined in science fiction. Aadhar made history.

Electoral history also has tendency to repeat itself. In the course of this book, the idea is to take present day contemporary event and relate it to the past event(s) and analyse it to deduce the out come of 2019 elections.

In past 70 years of independence in which I still can remember about 48 years, there was a time when canned juice was an ultimate luxury and was available only in five star hotels. It was an anomaly because the juice would be made in Bhutan under brand 'Druk'. It was revealed only much later that Bhutan was a country much poorer than India. But India was not only poor but closed for business, as well.

It is realised today that we lived through an era which was like people living in North Korea (or Iran) today, in which the entire population was at the mercy of undebated whims of one person or the coterie. Ironic? Far from it. A whole generation is out to vote next leader of India in 2019 and few dimwits have declared that they are more qualified than others without any chance of public mandate. But it can happen in India. It has happened in the past.

ClaudiusviI, Claudius is a 1976 BBC Television adaptation of Robert Graves' I, Claudius and Claudius the God. Written by Jack Pulman, it starred Derek Jacobi as Claudius, with Siân Phillips, Brian Blessed, George Baker, Margaret Tyzack, John Hurt, Patricia Quinn, Ian Ogilvy, Kevin McNally, Patrick Stewart, and John Rhys-Davies. The series covers the history of the early Roman Empire, told from the perspective of the elderly Emperor Claudius who narrates the series. was a Roman Caesar, who had physical deformities. He was installed, thinking that he would be kept in control of aristocrats who would advice him. He actually turned the tables on them. How many times, this has been repeated, fully or partly, in India? We are repeating it? Nobody remembers Claudius? If you try hard enough there is an old TV show running into several episodes, on him.

The attempt here is to contextualise political history of past 70-100 years. The contemporary events happening today, which had similar occurence in the past, including the talk of town 'Rafale' 'Mahagadbandhan' and 'Tukde Tukde' or breaking India gang.

After all, the Modi is being compared to Nehru and Indira which raises a question if that claim has any credibility at all?

Kings were answerable to no one. 'Kings barely know the difference between justice and tyranny' quipped the sculpturer (called sangtarash in Urdu) in an old (ancient?) superhit Hindi movie 'Mughal-e-Azam'. It was digitally made coloured in last decade. But the dialogue was true.

Democracy is not the hallmark of efficient governance. But it is chosen because it is least hostile to people or the 'masses' as communists would like to call. However the Indian experiment has shown that if the press or media is not sensitive to the cause of people, the democracy can also be hostile to people if not violent.

How come, Manmohan Singh which led the most corrupt Government for ten years with all the scams got elected for a second term in 2009? Why all the scams were revealed in second term?

Obvious answer is in the book of Sanjay Baru 'The Accidental Prime Minister' which has in depth revelation as to how the media works in tandem with or against the Government by acting as a propoganda machine of political parties. Movie called 'The Accidental Prime Minister' does not do complete justice to book but does make a point.

Journalists do not ask right questions. The term pliant journalist is redundant as there is no non-pliant (independent) journalist. All have become lobbyists. Some for the Government, others against it. Nobody has focus on people. Social media has pushed them to the verge of extinction. Lara Logan is a South African television and radio journalist and war correspondent. She is a former chief foreign affairs correspondent for CBS News. Recently in an interview she observed:

"There's one Fox. And there's many, many, many more organisations on the left. So, if you say, "Well, if they are lying about this is and this is propaganda," and whatever. They are pushing their viewpoints. Oh, well. The other side Yes. Both sides do terrible things. Both sides lie. Both sides manipulate. Both sides push their point of view……….One ideological perspective on everything never leads to an open free diverse tolerant society. The more opinions and views … of everything that you have, the better off we all are. So creating one ideological position on everything throughout your universities, throughout academia, in school and college, in media, and everywhere else, that's what concerns me. I don't have to agree with everybody...We don't even question if what we see on social media is real or not. We don't even question if a grassroots movement is really grassroots….."viiSee: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2019/02/19/lara_logan_hits_media_for_becoming_left-wing_propagandists_horseshit_low_standards.html

It is the most candid admission by a journalist ever. It did not even make it to first page, anywhere or news head lines. Please take time to listen in full.

Boris Johanson, ex Foreign Minister of UK, speaking at India Today Conclave in New Delhi, cautioned the guests not to trust 'leftist' news papers publishing the problems arising from Brexit.viiiListen https://youtu.be/wILDttCEtkk Are journalists like human tail, which humans lost when it stopped serving purpose?

The position has not changed in 2019. If earlier BJP had few voices in media with two TV channels now it has 4 lobbyists. Congress, instead of engaging in healthy debate has concluded that it needs a new TV channels to counter after it's lobbyist from the era of Emergency started to pose neutrality. All making emotional propaganda, rarely focusing on issues which affect people. All busy in setting the narrative.

This situation can not be remedied. But I have few questions to ask. Serious questions. I want to ask Manmohan Singh why I lost half of my net worth between 2010 to 2014 due to fall in currency value of Rupee from 37 to 71 per USD? Is there any truth that Karti Chidambaram was playing 'short' on currency of India as alleged by Subramanium Swamy?

I want to ask this Government that in the budget of 2019, the idea of restricting the net public debt to 40% of GDP has been again postponed it for future. Why ? Why deficit is it still at 46.5%? Why the public debt of India is shown to be 68% on the website called tradingeconomics.com ? Who is right?

Can this Government afford to give social security, it has introduced for the people of India, recently? Do we have resources? These are questions of fact. Hard numbers. Yet nobody asked.

There are political questions, which are more comprehensible. Who is a communal. Who is secular? Who is socialist or communist? Why we have dispute in India, about statute of Lenin? There is a question for Kashmiri jihadis as well. Is there any single Islamic country which has Caliph? How Kashmiri jihad is going to establish Caliphate?

When a Minister in the Government of Pakistan calls for Jihad as his natural rightixSee https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/videos/news/shocking-pak-minister-talks-of-jihad-and-kashmir/videoshow/68217622.cms , why it entails no debate anywhere at all?

The narrative of the book is around my personal experience as a conscious citizen of India, an elector's experience supplemented by contemporary or historical sources. Wild allegations or guesses are strictly avoided but questions raised may sometime imply it.

Structure of the Book

In chapter 1, there is the past of Modi and brief introduction and few things, many do not know about him.

Chapter 2 has a variety of boring statistics about India. Skip it after reading few paragraphs, if you hate numbers.

Chapter 3 is about the unique manner in which Elections are conducted in India. The Election Commission, it's evolution and where it is seriously lacking. Reasons for it's failures which is promoting dynastic politics in India.

Chapter 4 is about election campaign of Narendra Modi in 2014 and thereafter. How Modi turned out to be a showman with the use of technology, etc.

Chapter 5 study the phenomenon called Charisma. It is a journey into the past, studying the legendary Gandhi and Nehru and how they evolve into charismatic leaders. The actions, habits and traits which made them charismatic leaders.

Chapter 6 is a study of Dream Merchants. Some people have dreams to become big and they sell attractive dreams to people to achieve it. Ambitious people who sell dreams and ascend to power on the strength of their marketing of dreams.

Chapter 7 is a study of dictatorship. It is about the traits of autocracy in the past. It is there for the readers to compare if we are living in the times of an authoritarian regime as some journalists are claiming.

Chapter 8 is a study of contemporary ideologies of various political outfits and also of RSS which claims to be a non political outfit. It has a startling revelations.

Chapter 9 is a study of democracy and it's difference with feudalism which exists without ideology and which makes it different from democracy and how democracy is subverted by it.

Chapter 10 discusses the socialism and those who claim to practice it in India, how they practice it and what they made out of it.

Chapter 11 is a study about 'caste', it's enchantment, it's ancient history, it's contemporary evolution and it's politics. It notices the new 'caste' being made in India. It has revelation of it'sown in the end.

Chapter 12 is about various leaders who were portrayed like saviours. Were they really saviours? We may compare if the claims being made about Modi being a saviour is correct or not?

Chapter 13 is about Kingmakers, the opportunists who enjoyed power without responsibility. They are the Communists who are on a decline and why they are on decline.

Chapter 14 is about unique phenomenon of politics in India which is called anti incumbency and the dirty tricks which are often employed to ensure it.

Chapter 15 is about economics employed by present government as also the state of economy inherited by it. There are some unique experiments undertaken by this Government, which have been discussed. Modinomics, if successful may rewrite the Economics.

Chapter 16 is about the actual active ideology of the present Governments. It does not matter what this Government says or what others say about it. What matter is what it has done.

Chapter 17 is about the Achilles Heel of the Governments. It lists the shortcoming and the challenges faced by this Government which it has to overcome to win elections in 2019.

Chapter 18 is the final conclusion. It is about BJP and what it stands for it's supporters. It has some more revelations about the elections and as promised in Preface, the final disclosure of secrets of elections in India. The secrets which are hidden in plain sight.

In the last is Epilogue, has some more developments which took place while the manuscript was being finalised.

If you are in a position to raise your voice and ask right questions, you can change the world you live in. I have seen it happening many times. It is not the same India, it was 30 years ago. Let's hope it becomes better. But for that questions need to be asked. The questions must be right and crisp. Rhetorical questions create noise but bring no change. I hope this book will help you raise right questions. The questions which are begging to be asked.