Achilles Heel
Achilles or Achilleus was a Greek hero of the Trojan War, as per Greek mythology. He is the central character and the greatest warrior of Homer's Iliad. His mother was the immortal Nereid Thetis, and his father, the mortal Peleus, was the king of the Myrmidons. Achilles was killed near the end of the Trojan War by Paris, who shot him in the heel with an arrow rendering him immobile. He could not crawl far. Achilles was invulnerable in all of his body except for his heel because, when his mother Thetis dipped him in the river Styx as an infant, she held him by his heels.
Alluding to these legends, the term "Achilles' heel" has come to mean a point of weakness, especially in someone or something with an otherwise strong constitution. The Achilles tendon is also named after him due to these legends. Achilles tendon or heel cord is also known as the calcaneal tendon. It is a tendon of the back of the leg, and the thickest in the human body. If this tendon is cut, fall is inevitable. If there is pain, walking is difficult. The result of elections in 2019 will tell if the tendon is in stress or cut or is perfectly all right. The following however, appears to be reasons for stress.
Administration
The Modi Government has some Ministers who are working round the clock and some barely performing. There are two ways of working. Either go to office like a school boy and ask the Secretary what to do and follow their advice. It is easy and simple. Most ministers follow this route in every government.
The Ministers whose performance is visible are those ministers who take the approach of CEOs. They first understand as to what their ministry is all about. Study it's scope, consult experts, find it's problems, discuss with bureaucrats, fix targets and ask subordinate to chase and achieve it. It may seem simple but it takes lot of commitment and administrative acumen to do it.
MPs are busy in serving personal interests. There is no known mechanism either in the party or in the government to raise concern about non-performing ministers or legislatures.
Member of Parliaments are allotted huge bungalow in New Delhi. New comers are allotted sprawling apartments at New Delhi. Why? The MPs are supposed to serve the people of their constituency not the republic of India. The Parliament of India functions, hardly for 170 days in year, for that these MPs can be provided accommodation in any Government hotel. Why provide them accommodation like Roman Aristocracy?
The result of this benevolence is that the MPs who are supposed to help the people of his/her constituency end up stuck in Delhi wheres/he is not required for most of the time. People who need the help of MPs for their problems can only call upon the disdainful staff and relatives of MPs.
Grievance redressal
According to a view "despite having a great deal of faith in democracy, most citizens have a hard time making connections with public service providers.
(See: A Feast of Vultures: The Hidden Business of Democratic Business in India by Josy Joseph.)
In a country of over billion, except courts there is no way to redress grievance. Hence, the Govt is always under anti incumbency due to many aggrieved people who have genuine reasons. These people, even if they do not vote against the Government, opt for NOTA which stands for NONE OF THE ABOVE in ballot machines. In recent (2018) elections in MP, the winning margin on over ten seats was a quarter of the votes cast in favour of NOTA and this helped Congress Party to win in a big way.
To give an example, lets take the case of Income Tax. Online filing of Tax Return was started over 15 years back but one must have a Windows computer. Those using free and open source like Linux had no option. Later the option was added and forms based on Java were launched. First it did not work. Secondly it was not open source as it was free but was using Oracle proprietary software.
Position is no different under present Government. The only difference is that this time after raising the grievance through RTI, an officer made a phone call to say that they are working on it, presently please borrow Windows computer and file the return. Remember the watchman of graveyard?
Similar problems exist everywhere making people apathetic to the Government and some time the system of governance. However, the paid and committed voters are unaffected by governance and that is why they are in more demand by every party.
Ignorance
Ignorance is a bliss and it does not provide good government. Recently in a conversation an army officer's wife who is well in her early seventies and well educated retired from government service, revealed that she did not know what happened to Pakistan in 1971 or how Bangladesh was created. World is full of ignorant people. How many American know that there was a Federalist Party in USA which was in power till abut beginning of 1800 A.D?
The most dangerously ignorant class in India is that over 9 crore of landless casual workers in the rural area. This is the class prone to disinformation and propaganda. Fortunately this class is not into reading or watching much news on TV. Hence most of the media propaganda is useless. Therefore, it would be of utmost importance for Modi to reach out to these people and explain the policies to them. However, if any of the schemes like Ujjwala or PM Awas Yojna, discussed in previous chapter has personally touched any voter, it can be expected him/her to understand. But would that voter vote for Modi as a thank you? It is doubtful. At least not all of them.
Statistics does not impress people. Unless a Government really touches the life of a voter, he/she can not be converted into an elector for the Government. Every Government claims to have numbers. If A.B. Vajpayee Government had numbers to proclaim it was claimed in India Shining campaign in 2004. Manmohan in 2014 too had such numbers. His office had taken out a booklet with list of achievements of his government.
BJP Government has created a live portal with a display board showing all the achievements of hundreds of schemes launched by it here: https://transformingindia.mygov.in/performance-dashboard/
But the point is that numbers apart, the real question is: Has this Government actually touched the lives of people so as to entitle it for another term?
Tax terrorism
The system under corrupt regime is very simple. Save money from evasion of taxes and pay bribes as protection money. Now tax is imperative. The GST creates a chain of tax payers. Either you are in or you are out. Most people are forced to join. The beauty is that an honest business goes almost tax free as he gets credit of tax paid by his predecessor. Therefore, a tax paying trader would like to buy from a tax paid vendor. This has forced people to pay GST. Those who do not pay GST are forced out.
With formalization of trade, now Income Tax also has to be paid on turnover. It is no logic to say that on a turnover of 10 Crore income is only 2 lacs which is exempt. For honest professionals there is turnover based deemed income tax as well.
When BJP Government first came to power in 2014, reforming the tax laws was its top agenda. It did simplify indirect tax laws by introducing GST last year which subsumes hundreds of earlier tax laws and thus paving the way to one market one tax. However, it has not shown similar zeal to simplify income tax laws. Example of the problem of filing tax return, has already been addressed.
I bet that, except Piyush Goyal who is a Chartered Accountant (CA) by profession, no Minister in Modi Government can file his Income Tax return without hiring a CA. Now you ask people with income over 2.5 lacs to file return even if they have no tax payable how they can do this without paying fee to the CA, which is not less than Rs. 2000/-?
To the credit of the Government, in 2014 it did simplify the income tax filing making it easy for the salaried class. It takes barely ten minutes to log in, file the return and log off. They can also submit form 16 which is issued by employer to file the return but the same can not be said about other classes of tax payers. The tax filing for a professional especially who owns one or more properties is very difficult. Finance Minister did assure that 'processing of tax return' would be made anonymous but that covers only 0.01% of tax returns, as per the Minister himself
Vast discretion conferred on Income Tax Officers to allow or disallow almost anything. Above all the vast powers of search and seizure have been conferred with only requirement to 'record reasons for belief that income has been concealed'. Unfortunately in real life these requirements have also not been met. Hundreds of thousands of accounts of bullion/Jewelry dealers were attached in 2016 post demonetization without even service of the order to concerned person. Complete violation of natural justice and the Income Tax Act. It is nothing short of terrorism for the people who suffer.
To make the matters worst, an amendment was introduced in Income Tax Act in last budget of 2017 which will permit the search and seizure merely on the basis of suspicion. This can turn the country into a police state though nothing like that has happened so far.
Simplification of tax therefore remains big disappointment. The promise to bring a simplified 'Direct Tax Code' remained unfulfilled. There is not even an explanation for this failure.
This problem eats into core voters of BJP which has to bet now on new vote banks for success as it abysmal failure on this count. Despite tall promises in budget, it may cost BJP dearly.
Hunky dory
Hunky dory is an American phrase which means 'Everything is fine". Word hunk is a derivative of Dutch word honk which means home.
Poverty in India may be a statistical problem for the world but for a large population it is not something worthy enough to work for. They are hunky dory in the way they are.
As a whole, the population of India is more hunky dory than any other country, as traditionally wealth is only a step in life not the goal. As stated earlier the self realisation is to be achieved by an individual four steps i.e. Dharma, Arth, Kama and Moksha which translates as Duty, Wealth, Sex/procreation and Nirvana or Moksha. The Moksha has no English Translation as Nirvana is a Buddhist term.
The arth also translates as the finance or economy which is acknowledged as necessary. It is strange that these poor mostly lettered now (not literate) who perhaps never read the philosophies advocating not to accumulate wealth, follow a pattern of life to ensure it. It appears that this is a national secret as it is never discussed in public life even though we see it in play, every day.
In chapter 2, where the statistics is given, the number of casual working class is placed at 9 crores (900 million). What these people do? All surveys are flawed. First of all, at first glance, it is assumed that these are 'manual labour'. No. not all. Most have skills. Some have special skills. They work in factories, mines, shops and where not.
These workers are not poor for they have talent. They work in cities nearby or far, say for 8 months and then leave for village. They spend every penny in village, enjoy few months and then return to work to repeat the cycle. Will opening of bank accounts by these people induce them to save? If it does, it will be game changer for India.
However, these 'happy go lucky' hardly care for the governance and may vote randomly on emotions or misinformation or just rumours. That is where RAFALE saga is addressed. But the problem is it is addressed on cable TV, which these people may not have access to. More so if it is spoken to in English.
Cash for vote
Inspite for all the vigilance by Election Commission and frequent recovery of cash, the menace of vote for cash is on the increase. A speculation in the form of an alleged survey alleges it to be 37% but that seems like a wild guess. But the menace do exist. Poor or not so poor people cared not for whom they vote. This could hurt BJP if it is appealing on performance and issues, alone.
However, the search and seizure by Income Tax department to check possession of large amounts in cash for distribution among voters may help to some extent. But in the absence of a targeted effort by Election Commission with the help of police as well as other departments can only check this menace. The distribution of cash is through local, grass root leaders which can not be checked easily.
There are rumours of cash playing major role in recent state elections as also how it was recovered in less than 60 days of governance by various corrupt measures.
Unemployment
Unemployment or under employment is and will always be a problem in a populous country like India especially when past several generations did not make arrangement for the population explosion which happened since 1990 onwards. Following was the position of unemployment in 2013 as reported in media:
"Some 20 months after hotly contesting data on UPA-1's "jobless growth", the government has admitted to lack of substantial increase in employment between 2004-05 and 2009-2010, with the self-employed workforce shrinking from 56.4% to 50.7% of the total workforce. …… In absolute numbers, the self-employed decreased from 258.4 million to 232.7 million in this period while regular salaried workers rose from 69.7 million to 75.1 million. The ranks of casual labour rose from 129.7 million to 151.3 million. Collectively, the total workforce increased from 457.8 million to 459.1 million, a rise of just 0.3% over this period…."cccxxiiiSee https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Jobless-growth-during-UPA-1-admits-Centre/articleshow/19668470.cms
With arrival of Ola, Uber, Zomato, Swiggy and so many startups which need massive work force, it is apparent that jobs have been created. But the Government is sticking to the numbers of EPF and Mudra Loans etc. Why could it not gather the job data the way it was reported in the news paper report of 2013?
Another interesting point is that all parties have ignored a basic fact that more and more young girls are now joining work force. In all employments about 30% jobs are now taken by girls. They are now working on Gas Stations, Restaurants, Shops etc. and are not confined to traditional job of receptionists, nursing or teaching or stitching. This itself is an increase in unemployment due to social change. However there is no whisper about this change in social discourse.
These are some of the challenges, apart from the traditional changes from the challenges from the socialist (caste) and secularist (Muslim) vote bank politicians which Modi has to face. The recent state election results of 3 states declared on Dec. 11, 2018 show that every vote counts. There can be a difference of less than 100 votes. It may be a sign of maturity of democracy but also a troublesome factor for 2019.
Kashmir Jihad
Jihad is a dirty word. Press never uses it.cccxxivSubject to some exceptions like Cathy Scott-Clark and Adrian Levy the authors of The Meadow who too occasionally alternate jihadi and militant. Politicians deny it. Jihad is the religious duty for Gazwa-e-Hind. Hussain HaqqanicccxxvHusain Haqqani is Pakistan's leading dissident public intellectual. In addition to serving as Pakistan's ambassador to the United States from 2008 to 2011, he was an adviser to three prime ministers, including Nawaz Sharif and the late Benazir Bhutto. Haqqani currently lives in exile in the United States, where he is Senior Fellow and Director for South and Central Asia at the Hudson Institute. explains gazwa-e-hind or battle for India, as under:
"..two groups have been granted absolute protection from hellfire. The first is the army that will wage jihad against Hindus in Hindustan and the other is the Muslim army that fights alongside Jesus (whom Muslims consider one of Islam's Prophets) after his second advent……….The people of Pakistan are destined for victory in Ghazwa-e-Hind, as prophesied by Prophet Muhammad himself,' he insists, vowing that Pakistanis 'would conquer India' and 'then march onward to fight against Israel in Palestine"cccxxviISBN: 978-93-5277-770-9: Reimagining Pakistan: Transforming a Dysfunctional Nuclear State by Husain Haqqani (2018) Harper Collins.
According to Haqqani, the above forms the raison d'etre of existence of Pakistan. Recently Minister in the Government of Pakistan calls for Jihad as his natural right while addressing the Parliament.cccxxviiSee https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/videos/news/shocking-pak-minister-talks-of-jihad-and-kashmir/videoshow/68217622.cms The Kashmiri, politicians and separatists, who support the people demanding for azadi have never been asked this direct question: "Is agitation in Kashmir Valley is a Jihad for azadi or freedom from Hindu India?"
Mufti Mohammad Sayeed was the Home Minister of India (in V.P. Singh Government) between 2 December 1989 to 10 November 1990 when about several lacs Kashmiri Pandits (read Hindus) were forced out of Kashmir Valley under his watch.cccxxviiiSee https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exodus_of_Kashmiri_Hindus What can be meaning of this forced exodus of minority Hindu's from Valley, if it is not a Jihad?
In 2015, the J&K assembly elections threw up hung legislature and to everyone's surprise BJP joined alliance with Mufti to form a Government. Mufti's separatist tendencies were too obvious. The alliance continued with Mufti's daughter Mehbooba Mufti, after death of senior Mufti. It ended in June 2018 with the allegations that she was aggravating the situation.
No terror attack had happened in any city in India in last 5 years, while the Europe was burning with bombs and blood spilled with knife and what not. This could have been a helping factor for Modi. But the Indian forces took the brunt of terrorism head on, again and again.
In July 2015, three gunmen attacked a bus and police station in Gurdaspur and earlier in 2016, 4–6 gunmen terrorists attacked the Pathankot Air Force Station. Again on 18 September 2016, near the town of Uri in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir 17 army personnel were killed during the attack. An additional 19-30 soldiers were reported to have been injured. A gun battle ensued lasting six hours, during which all the four terrorists were killed.
Uri was avenged by Indian Army by conducting a surgical strike on terror camps situated inside line of control, in September 2016. It was reported that 35-40 to terrorists as well as nine Pakistani soldiers were killed in the surgical strikes.cccxxixSee https://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/uri-avenged-35-40-terrorists-9-pakistani-soldiers-killed-in-indian-surgical-strikes-say-tv-reports/397625/ and https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/army-conducted-surgical-strikes-on-terror-launch-pads-on-loc-significant-casualties-caused-dgmo/articleshow/54579855.cms?from=mdr It was hoped that Terroristan will learn a lesson but it did not.
Untill about a few years ago, Modi was most popular, as per a research with 9 persons preferring him out of 10 persons but was perceived as soft on PakistancccxxxSee https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Policy-Politics/Strongman-Modi-chimes-with-voters-but-seen-as-soft-on-Pakistan , the mothership of global terror attacks.
Again 40 lives were lost in Pulwama, Kashmir in suicide bomb attack on 14th February. This was the worst casuality since the Kargil war in 1999. The responsibility of attack was taken by Jaish-e-Muhammad an outfit run from a neighbouring Jihadi country Terroristan. A video of suicide bomber spilled the beans on jihad. He openly expressed his disgust and hate with intention to kill 'all cow piss drinker' which was his understanding of Hindus. Personally I know no person who drinks cow piss. Though it is known to be used in Ayurvedic medicine but so is human urine in allopathic medicine.
Whole country was taking out candle light marches. Every one blamed Modi for doing too little. Next day India withdrew the 'most favoured nation' status from Pakistan which was given two decades ago without reciprocity from Pakistan. Prime Minister promised retaliation. By evening it was announced the security cover given to separatists who call themselves 'Hurriyat' was ordered to be withdrawn. Would nation excuse Modi for the lapse of doing too little too late?
It is said that Jinnah created a Muslim Terroristan outside India and Nehru created one within India by inserting article 35A and 370 in the Constitution of India which made Jammu and Kashmir region an isolated country within India in which except for the defence and foreign policy, the writ of the Government and Parliament does not run. BJP had promised removal of article 370 in it's manifesto. It did not act on promise.
It however appears from some of the statements made by the BJP leaders after the elections to the Local Bodies (including village councils) in Kashmir recently, that they have gained support at grass root level. The population of Kashmir Valley may be predominantly Sunni but it has other muslim communities as well.cccxxxiIt is also home of nomadic tribes of gujjars, dards and bakarwals. Remember Naya Neta. The election was boycotted by both dynastic political parties of Mufti and Abdullahs. BJP stepped in and swept the polls.cccxxxiiSee https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/bjp-sweeps-urban-local-body-polls-in-4-districts-of-south-kashmir/articleshow/66292015.cms Was the Pulwama attack was a rection to instill fear in the minds of those supporting BJP?
On 18 February 2019, the mastermind of Pulwama attack was hunted down and killed by Army after a prolonged armed encounter and further loss of life. On 26th February 2019, ar 3.45 AM to 4.05 AM, even before Pakistan airforce could act, 12 Mirage jets of Indian Air Force struck on three terrorist camps inside Pakistan's territory well beyond POK and the international boundary. It was a first violation of air space of neighbouring country since 1971. All the political parties responded favourably. Public applauded. BJP has yet to call it war on Jihad but it did call it war on terrorism. Why this reluctance?
Kashmir Policy of BJP, termed as least successful may prove to be achilles heel in 2019. Would airstrike on 26th February 2019 in Balakot well inside the Pakistan, reverse the fortunes of Modi?
Politicians from other parties, fell over each others to know the number of terrorists killed in Balakot. Pakistan used the statements of politicians to it'sown advantage. One of the Politian's when in power had remarked that every terror attack can not be stopped.cccxxxiiiSee https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/mumbai-terror-attacks-difficult-to-stop-every-terror-attack-congress-general-secretary-rahul-gandhi/articleshow/9230140.cms?from=mdr
If the conflict unfolds into a war, it may prove to be expensive. Wars do not win elections. Ordinarily no democratic leader which led to war, won election held thereafter as the war affect common people far more than they anticipate or are ready to face. The initial bravado of the public calling for war wears out rapidly. The only exception was Indira in 1972 but she too could not control the after effect of war like inflation and shortages. BJP would hope that Modi will repeat in 2019 like Indira did in 1972 but without the side effects.
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