Denouement
2019 elections are less than 60 days ahead. It is not clear if RSS volunteers will come out to support Modi in these elections. If not it will fall upon Narendra Modi and Amit Shah to spruce up his team to motivate citizens and win this election. The first and foremost problem is identification of Electors and Voters.
Electors and Voters
Electors and voters are the two words which are treated as synonyms. However it is not entirely correct. The electors, research and decide whom to elect but voters just randomly decide whom to vote.
Therefore the terms electors and voters may not be two different terms for Election Commission, but there is a sea of difference in it's meaning for understanding the elections.
The voters need to be converted to electors and made to look at the facts and statistics and not to act on falsehood and propoganda. But that is a very long call. The journey of BJP may have started as a "Hindu" identity party but today it boasts of working for all sections of society without appeasement of any section.
The BJP supporters are reluctant voters. Parties opposing it have committed voters because they vote like a block. Any drop in voting percentage means loss for BJP. This is what happened in recent elections in M.P., Rajasthan and Chatisgarh. Unless BJP workers enthuse it's voters to come out and vote, success of Modi in 2019 is not possible.
Dreams
Nothing is more convincing than a dream of Utopia. Revolutionaries sell Utopia. In previous chapters, we have discussed the story of dream merchants. All politicians sell dreams but they do not get two terms in office in succession in India. Did Modi only sell dreams as opposition calls it 'a jumla sarkar'?
Dream of New India is already being projected for last several years. It is a dream for a developed India in which it would be a developed country, not a third world country. Would laying of 40,000 Kms. of highways in last 5 years be enough to convince people?
The idea of Smart Cities and Adarsh Gaon or Model Village is part of dream of New India but not a single smart city is visible as yet. The MPs have miserably failed to develop one Model Village per year. They have become what Jose called middle men who do not perform without a cut:
"….The Indian democracy works only through middlemen who know how to get the moribund system moving. Ordinary Indians in their thousands wait patiently every day at the residences of local politicians, typists, professional middlemen and such intermediaries to get the system to deliver what is justifiably theirs. ............Although the system of intermediaries has not been adequately studied, one can confidently assume that the business of being a middleman between the public and governments is the most flourishing industry in India. It is recession-proof and has no entry barriers; besides, it provides great social mobility to its participants. There is no licence to be obtained, no tax to report, no mandatory qualifications…."cccxxxivA Feast of Vultures ibid.
In five years we were supposed to have atleast 1500 model villages developed by 300 MPs of ruling combine alone. How many have been developed? Will this impact the idea of New India? Time will tell. The urgency of situation is summed up as under:
"…...Democracy is a regular visitor via elections; for everything else, the villagers must look for facilitators and middlemen..... In New Delhi, all discussions are now about transforming India into a manufacturing hub, building smart cities and strengthening the country'sIT power status. A new government is talking about regaining India's past glory and its rightful place in the global order. But here in Hridaychak, those words mean nothing........ who can get them a bed in a government hospital, help register a police complaint, get electricity or drinking water, or a toilet….."cccxxxvA Feast of Vultures ibid.
Electricity reached every village, roads of villages went up to 91% and 9 Crore toilets may have been built in the villages but so much more is needed to be done.
The skill development is another achilles heel in Modi Government. The skill development program took off very late, after the first Minister was fired and another appointed in his place. It has barely touched the magic number of one crore i.e. 10 million. For any scheme to be even visible in India it has to touch people in crores. Modi knows it and has not mentioned it in any of his recent election speeches. Is it because he does not want to engage with opposition after he had explained the numbers of employment in Parliament? But even in Parliament he did not mention the numbers of those skilled in "Skill India Program." Why no body reminded him? Why no starred question?
Would good intentions of Modi be good enough to vote him back into office in 2019?
It is however sure that whether Narendra Modi wins or not, he is not going anywhere. The today's opposition is in doldrum and may cobble together a government with small majority in case of hung parliament in 2019, but that will not last. There have been many such experiments in the past and people should remember it? Do they remember it? Even those journalists who predict hung parliament again in 2019 sympathise with Modi:
"...The point I am making is that Modi did not need to sound defensive at all in his speech. His achievements are many and anyone who travels in rural India can see them. There are roads where none existed before, gas connections and electricity available to people who never dreamed such things were possible and there are pucca homes where once there were mud huts. These are real achievements.."cccxxxviTavleen Singh in her column: https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/fifth-column-narendra-modis-farewell-speech-lok-sabha-lok-sabha-elections-2019-5576716/
A large part of today's voters are born around the time last of such experiment of minority government was tried in 1997. How can voters, who were children at that time, remember it?
What every democracy needs is an issue based politics. Elections must be fought on issues. But how can any issue be more important than providing regular employment ot 9 Crore people? Has Government policies satisfied the unemployed?
Would dirty tricks department of Congress win or that of BJP? Does it even bother the voters as to what dirty tricks they play almost on weekly basis?
All these issues make this election of 2019 precarious and likely results tend to be so murky?
The Secret of Winning
The elections to the Lower House of Parliament i.e. Lok Sabha is called "General Elections". There can not be anything more misleading. It is not 'General' at all.
These are 543 elections being held simultaneously. These are not just seats. These are 543 independent elections. Each with it'sown anti-incumbency. A party who has to form a Government, has to win 272 elections.
What makes Indian elections unique is uneven growth of population. The constitution provided for drawing up of constituency for each seat of Lok Sabha. The redrawing of constituency was frozen several decades earlier. The reason was that the northern states had more population growth and if constituencies were redrawn, the smaller states of south would be penalised with lesser seats in Parliament. Hence the delimitation freeze is extended for decades and shall be due in 2026. This has resulted in uneven constituency. Some with very small number of voters some very large number of voters. (See appendix 1 for details.)
The secret of winning is already told and you missed it. In the success stories of all the leaders, there is one common thread i.e. connecting with people. Those who connected with people won but were thrown out due to non-delivery. Three generations of Nehru were granted opportunities and they now seek one more opportunity but without connecting with people. Parachute dropping a nice face, at the last moment, may not work again and again.
Since 2010, the BJP started data base of it's supporters. Today BJP is largest political party with 12 crore members out of which about 9 crore are verified by phone number or address etc. 9 crore means ten percent of total electorate.cccxxxviiSee https://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/amit-shahs-target-for-party-workers-hoist-bjp-flag-at-5-crore-homes-by-march-2/1484868/ No other political party has such data base.
Modi has paid special attention to 115 most backward districts for past many years. The Collectors (CEOs) of these districts have been hand picked from brightest. Massive development is monitored by PM Modi himself through video conferencing. It is an obvious admission of the fact that local members of parliament are untrustworthy to entrust development. The target is to fully develop these districts by year 2022. Would this help Modi win some seats? It is possible. The details of each district can be downloaded from the website of Niti Aayog and its progress can be seen from a special site developed as a Live Dashboard. There is also census of 2011 in public domain which partly provided all the data in chapter 2 supra.
Now combine all this data and it produces massive district wise data of aspirational people with obvious aspirations which people expect. The dependance on feed back of MLAs and MPs is done away with. Though it is not good in long term, it does enable the team Modi to deliver it's development. It is to be seen, how satisfied people actually are. From the above link to the Dash Board of aspirational districts it can be seen that there are 4 districts in which skill development is zero.
Vote Bank
After the demise of Indira (in 1984), regional parties which were near to the ground used the formula of combining caste and religious blocks and kept Congress party out of power for half of the time. The formula of socialists of Uttar Pradesh, explained earlier was replicated by other parties in other states as well. The ex President of India Pranav Mukherjee has called this era of the last three decades as "Coalition Era" in his biography.
According to speeches of BJP leaders, the caste/vote bank politics has broken down. People are not voting as a block. Muslim women are coming forward to support BJP. Is it true? If this is completely true, this is nothing short of a revolution. But it is contradicted by BJP allying with numerous regional parties which are nothing other than caste or community parties and all are unapologetically, dynastic as well.
But Narendra Modi has created his own vote bank of a different kind or class. Helping physically challenged in numerous schemes has endeared him to this class who are now called 'Divyaang' which means the one with special ability. The armed forces and their families are another following. One rank one pension and spending time with Jawans helped him win more than 51% of votes from the state of Himanchal Pradesh, from where a disproportionately large number of present or retired army personnel hail. Similar is the expectation from Muslim females who have been freed from exploitation by ending the practice of of instant divorce by oral pronouncement of Triple Talaq.
Of course Shia muslims leaders are open supporters of BJP. Bohra Muslims are already with Modi, for a long time. Actually Sunni/Wahabi Muslims are an isolated lot as rest have abandoned them for obvious reason of their persecution in Pakistan.
The young age of majority of voters and better education too help Modi connect with them. In 2011 the education ratio of educated was 74% up from 12% in 1947 when Nehru used to sweep the polls. In 2019 the ratio must have gone further up and presently it must be around 85%. This makes it possible to take informed decision.
The regional satrap Mulayam Singh Yadav, the socialist secularist leader sent in exile by his own son Akhilesh, on February 13, 2019, the last day in 16th Lok Sabha, made following interesting statement (in Hindi):
"...I want to congratulate the Prime Minister. Mr Prime Minister you took everyone along. It is true that whenever I met you and asked for something, you ordered it immediately. I respect you. I respect the fact that you tried to take everyone along...Even together we can not bring numbers required for majority……..I wish that PM Modi, you should become the prime minister again. I have experienced that whenever I met you, you got my work done instantly..."cccxxxviiiHe spoke in Hindi: "… Main pradhanmantri ji ko badhai dena chahta hun. Pradhanmantri ji aapne bhi sabse miljulkar bhi sabka kaam kiya. Yeh sahi hai ki hum jab-jab mile, kisi kaam ke liye kaha to aapne usi waqt order kiya. Main aapka yahan par aadar karta hun. Samman karta hun ki pradhanmantri ji ne sabko saath lekar chalne ka prayas kiya. "ham sab mil kar be bahumat ki sankhya nahi la sakte"…."Meri kaamna hai ki pradhaanmantri ji aap phirse pradhaanmantri banein. Mera anubhav hai ki main jab bhi aap se mila, aapne turant mera kaam kiya"
Remember the salt and loyalty equation? In Uttar Pradesh, Mulayam still is a tall leader with the ability to sway votes and voters. His is saying that Modi tried to take every one along, at a time when many leaders accuse Modi of being a dictator, adds to Modi's tally in the perception battle. There are many loyalists of Mulayam and this statement may act as a whistle to those loyal followers to take the cue in next elections.
Personal popularity of Modi will help but if any candidate has anti-incumbency or has not performed well, he may suffer. This is why every one wishes a Modi wave which may lift them above the anti incumbency. It is likely that many heads may roll in ticket distribution for next elections.
About 22 Crore people have visited ardh Kumbh at Prayagraj in 2019. A million foreigners too visited Kumbh. The arrangements were made by BJP Government of Uttar Pradesh. While New York Times was critical of use of hoardings of Modi in Kumbh, it did appreciate the arrangement in these words:
"….According to Kumbh regulars, this year's festival is much cleaner and better organized than previous festivals, and many pilgrims gave Mr. Adityanath credit. The traffic flows more smoothly. There are no beggars in sight (police officers said they had been banned). There isn't even much litter — street cleaners seem to sweep up the empty water bottles and snack wrappers the instant they are dropped. ….. There are even riverside changing rooms — a first — so pilgrims, especially women, can have a little privacy…."
For the first time in 50 years, the water at 'Sangam' was actually clean. That too when as per official figures it was only 50% clean. In 2014 Modi won with just 17 crores votes. If all the people visiting Kumbh, vote for Modi he would return to power with 380 plus seats as against required 272 seats. Is it possible?
Leave a Response